INDIAN STOCK MARKET

MEDIUM TERM NIFTY IN BEARISH MODE

2010-11-15T09:21:00.001+05:30

MEDIUM TERM NIFTY ON WEEKLY CHART (BEARISH SIGN) TARGET 5400, THIS (NIFTY 5400) IS A LEVEL WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A POSITIONAL LONG IN STOCK AND NIFTY.

Nifty in September'10

2010-09-01T17:11:00.001+05:30

DAY AHEAD

2010-05-05T17:40:00.003+05:30

Rallies have been of a reducing magnitude and lasted for about 10-13 weeks. As a matter of fact, since the recent rally is 11 weeks old, the time analysis discussed here suggests that a correction may be round the corner. Further, price action since October 2009 has been a channelled one as shown in the chart below. The Sensex is approaching the higher trend line of the channel joining highs of October 2009 (17493) and January 2010 (17790). The value of the trend line for the coming week is around 18,200 levels. Therefore, 18,048–18,200 remains a crucial upside resistance for the Sensex while time wise also the Sensex rally may have matured. If the above observation holds true we may be headed for correction.

A detailed look at the major movements on the index over the past 10 years reflects a peculiar pattern on the topping and bottoming process in Indian markets. In Sensex history, all major tops and bottoms have happened closer to every alternate March, with tolerance of one or two month

NEXT ?

2010-01-27T19:54:00.001+05:30

Indian stocks slid for the sixth consecutive trading day on Wednesday tracking weak Asian and European cues amid global nervousness over US President Barack Obama’s bank reform plans. National Stock Exchange’s 50-share Nifty, plummeted over 150 points to end the day at 4,853, its worst single-day fall since August 2009. The Nifty has shed 421 points in six trading sessions, a fall of about 8%. India does have a large domestic investor base, insurance companies, the domestic mutual funds, a huge retail base etc. So to that extent we have fallen with global market one could call it knee-jerk because if you see through 2009, we went up 85%, Wall Street went up 25% the MSCI Global went up 32%.

“If you feel this is a stock, which I like at this level, just go ahead and buy it. It could go down 10% from here as well but if it’s a good company with good fundamentals, it’s going to be rewarding.” We have been very bullish on LIC Housing, Infosys, Rolta, Hero Honda, ITC, NIIT, United Spirits, Reliance Industries.

WEEK VIEW

2009-12-23T10:10:00.000+05:30

The Nifty bounced from 4933 zone on expected lines and tested the resistance zone near 4990 levels.. Intraday charts continued to form lower top and lower bottom, which indicates The short-term trend would remain weak as long as the Nifty fails to sustain above 5050 levels. On the flip side, the 4930 mark remains very crucial support for the Nifty in the short-term. Failure to hold 4930 could open substantial downsides. As long as the Nifty trades in a range of 4930-5000. we suggest trading this range. Only a break out from this range would give us further directional view. Nifty spot has supports at 4960, 4930 and resistances at 5020, 5050.

CUES FOR 17th NOV 2009

2009-11-17T09:18:00.003+05:30

Nifty November futures ended unchanged at a premium of 4 points from yesterday. (Bullish).
India VIX closed at 29.09, decreased by 3.92% suggests stability. (Bullish)

FIIs in F&O
FIIs net sellers of Rs 153 crore in F&O
FIIs net sellers of Rs 227 crore in index futures
FIIs net buyers of Rs 216 crore in index options
FIIs net sellers of Rs 175 crore in stock futures
FIIs net buyers of Rs 34.2 crore in stock options

PCR picture
Puts added 12.5 lakh shares in open interest (Bearish)
Calls added 0.9 lakh shares in open interest (Mild Bullish)
Total Puts at 7.4 crore shares in open interest (Bearish)
Total Calls at 4.68 crore shares in open interest (Bullish)

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest can be summarized by the following table.

Price	Open Interest	Interpretation
Rising	Rising	Market is Strong
Rising	Falling	Market is Weakening
Falling	Rising	Market is Weak
Falling	Falling	Market is Strengthening

Total open int build up indicates strong resistance for these markets can be seen at 5100 where maximum call writing can be seen while 4800 and 4900 puts which have a total open interest build up of 60 lakh shares could actually lead.
Meanwhile in yesterday’s trade 5100 Calls added 4.4 lakh shares in open interest and 5200 Calls added 1.5 lakh shares in open interest indicating resistance at those levels while active puts at 4900 and 5000 may act as strong supports for our markets on the downward moves.

WEEK AHEAD

2009-11-09T00:25:00.001+05:30

Nifty calls added 10 lacs and puts added 15 lacs in open interest. (Bullish). In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 32/18. (Bullish). The Nifty made a spectacular recovery from the 4600 mark. As expected, buying emerged on declines although it was little lower than the levels we expected. Although short to medium term bearish implications remain. 4600 and 4900 will be important levels to watch for. We expect the current rally to continue to the levels of 4880-4930(Achived) zone where profit booking may be expected. We, therefore, suggest buying at the current price and SL 4730 for targets of 4830-4870. Nifty spot has supports at 4730, 4680 and resistances at 4830, 4880. 4863 Lakshman Rekha for this week.

FII ACTIVITY & GRAPH

2009-10-27T22:44:00.002+05:30

Daily Trends in FII Investments on 27-OCT-2009

Reporting Date	Debt/Equity	Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)	Gross Sales(Rs Crores)	Net Investment (Rs Crores)
27-OCT-2009	Equity	2147.90	1956.90	191.00
27-OCT-2009	Debt	484.30	777.00	(292.70)

WEEK AHEAD

2009-10-26T21:44:00.000+05:30

Nifty has closed below the 20 days SMA which is placed at 5039 levels. On the lower side last Thursday’s low of 4965 will act as an immediate support. Continues trading below that level can test previous low of 4920 mark. Nifty spot has supports at 4965, 4920 and resistances at 5060, 5120. Nifty nears long term support trend line approximately very closer to 4890 which nifty is trying to hold since 18th Sep 2009. Failure to hold or bounce back from these levels is bearish. Short term traders could use this point to long their trades in nifty with tight stop loss.

WEEK AHEAD

2009-10-12T20:47:00.000+05:30

I this week market should decide its short term trend. “It is a pretty tricky stock market right now to call,”

Daily and weekly charts showing higher tops ad higher bottoms indicating an uptrend. Weekly support around 4850 & resistance at 5120. The close below target is 4770 – 4740. After meeting initial targets of 4940, the nifty is likely to continue its upward movement and meet the next targets of 5110 – 5120 / 5240 as the upside targets.

IPO

INDIABULLS POWERs LIMITED (Grading – 3 out of 5) Initial public offer (IPO) has received an overwhelming response on the very first day. The issue was subscribed 5.95 times, as per the data available on the NSE website.

The price band is fixed at Rs 40-45 per equity share and the minimum bid lot is of 150 equity shares and in multiples of 150 shares thereafter. The issue will close on October 15, 2009.

The company has five thermal power projects under development, which will have a combined installed capacity of 6,615 MW. Projects include -:

1 - Amravati Phase I Power Project will have two super-critical units of 660 MW each, with combined capacity of 1,320 MW.

2 - Nashik Power Project will consist of five units of 135 MW each and two units of 330 MW each, with a combined capacity of 1,335 MW.

3 - Bhaiyathan Power Project will have two super-critical units of 660 MW each, with combined capacity of 1,320 MW.

4 - Amravati Phase II Power Project will have two super-critical units of 660 MW each, with combined capacity of 1,320 MW.

5 - Chhattisgarh Power Project is expected to have two super-critical units of 660 MW each, with combined capacity of 1,320 MW.

Apart from these projects, the Company is developing four medium sized hydro-power projects of 60 MW, 30 MW, 46 MW and 31 MW in Arunachal Pradesh.

For the year ended March 31, 2009, it has reported profit of Rs 82.96 crore on total income of Rs 141.34 crore on the consolidated basis.

Morgan Stanley India Company Pvt Ltd is the book running lead manager and Karvy Computershare Pvt Ltd is the registrar to the issue.

The Company has certain foreign investors such as FIM Limited and LNM India Internet Ventures Limited as its shareholders.

SUBSCRIBE THIS IPO FOR LASTING GAINS.

WEEK AHEAD

2009-10-01T20:46:00.009+05:30

The action formed strong bull candle which closed well above previous swing high of 5036 thereby negating bearish implications of Bearish engulfing pattern.As mentioned in our previous reports, we prefer to remain with trend despite overbought conditions of momentum oscillators. Short term target remains at 5100 however sustainability above 5050 for couple of sessions may lead the Nifty to 5160-5200 mark. Previous resistance area around 5000-5020 is now expected to change its’ role to a support area.Short terrm trend remains positive above 4900 levels. Change of guard would be warranted only if we see lower top and lower bottom formation or decisive breach of 4900 levels on closing basis.

Overseas investors on Thursday made a net investment of Rs 976.46 crore(Prov.) in the Indian stock markets.After having net sold shares worth $8 billion in 2008, foreign investors have mopped up close to $12 billion worth of equities so far in 2009. FIIs maintain that flows are unlikely to slow down till such time central banks start pulling back the stimulus money. There is a perception that markets are likely to surrender some of their recent gains before long. However, the general perception is that it is likely to be a gradual decline.

TO WATCH

1. ECB intrest rate decision.

2. Bullish on bank &Finance

WEEK AHEAD

2009-09-25T21:27:00.001+05:30

The market has seen some selling pressure in the near term. But the good news is that Nifty has been able to hold 4900 and not breach that. Till Nifty is able to stay above 4840 and worse case 4750, the uptrend is intact.

WEEK AHEAD

2009-09-20T10:03:00.000+05:30

Last week the sentiment turned cautious when the Nifty touched 5000 mark, which has attracted some profit booking. Cautiousness also was heared in the voice of central bankers globally including theRBI of India. Inflation scenario is going to be one of the major concerns for the Indian market in the coming future. The time and strategy of exit from the current stimulus packages also would be very important for the stock markets worldwide, as it may put enormous pressure if there is no real economic recovery by then. Global markets may get some clues on this from the G-20 meeting, which is due in the later half of the coming week. Overall, the undertone seems to remain cautious with probability of some downward correction from the higher level. So it is better to short Nifty Future Oct @ 4980 Sl 5070 TG 4780.

WEEKLY VIEW

2009-09-11T19:07:00.000+05:30

NIFTY HAS MAJOR RESISTANCE AROUND 4920. I THINK IT IS BETTER POSITION TO BOOK PROFIT IN DELIVERY AT 4920. NIFTY HAS MAJOR SUPPORT @4720-50. BELOW IT BETTER TO CREATE SHORT POSITION.

CROSSING 4750 IN LOW VOLUME

2009-09-08T09:53:00.001+05:30

NIFTY CROSS 4750 WITH NOT TOO MUCH VOLUME. FII CONT. IN BUY MODE. NIFTY RESISTANCE AROUND 4850-4870. NF WEEK BELOW 4770.

PATIENCE

2009-09-01T18:31:00.000+05:30

Don't take any fresh long positions until Nifty shows clear breakout above 4750. Nifty has strong support at 4540

NEW F&O SERIES

2009-08-27T17:58:00.000+05:30

Nifty F&O Call: Hold long positions with target of 4850 and trailing stop loss of 4600

WEEKLY VIEWS

2009-08-23T10:46:00.000+05:30

In past three days, the Nifty has compressed its action between a range - 4500 to 4380. This is good news, because such a narrow range is not likely to be sustained. Therefore trade in breakout / breakdown. So be long above NF 4542 with a S/L NF 4480 & TARGET-1: 4660, TARGET-2: 4710.

RANGE BOUND

2009-08-19T09:05:00.000+05:30

Range now could be NS 4555-4495-4424. Break out either side could give big move however watch NF 4351 for stoploss for all longs.Pivot for today is NF 4436-42 with resistance at 4492-4529; support in the zone 4417-4380. For strength NF has to trade over 4424.

GLOBAL SELL OFF

2009-08-18T09:45:00.003+05:30

India too participated in the global sell off breaking all supports and testing the previous low. By today's selling, hourly charts will be in oversold. Pivot for today is NF 4412 with support around 4333-4319-4293. For strength NF has to trade over 4454. Break of previous lows can take us to 4200 levels in coming days.

NHPC IPO

2009-08-12T19:17:00.002+05:30

The initial public offering (IPO) of India's biggest hydroelectric power generator, NHPC, closed today for subscription. The issue has received good response from all categories of investors.
As per the data available on the NSE website, the NHPC IPO has already been subscribed 23.62 times so far. It has received bids for more than 3,961 crore shares as against the issue size of 167.73 crore shares.
Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor, CNBC-TV18, said this morning that according to him NHPC would list between Rs 42 and Rs 43 regardless of market conditions.

MARKET THREAT

2009-08-12T10:02:00.000+05:30

Yesterday, the support was held and could rally till NF 4515. With the Asian markets showing negativity, the monthly pivot of NF 4400 may be under threat. Watch NS 4380... break of that will call for more shorts as next weekly support is around 4335-4294. Today's pivot is NF 4459 with support around 4400-4382. NF has to trade over 4426 for any upmove. Strength only over NF 4497. Daily indicators are still negative.

SWINE FLU IN MARKET

2009-08-11T09:28:00.000+05:30

Yesterday , NS 4420 was broken in last hours of trade.... Next level to watch is NS 4380. For today, if we trade over NF 4382 then we can target 4454- 4470 and strength coming only over 4514 Break of 4382 has support in the zone 4338-4326. Daily indicators are still negative... Any upmove will be just a bounce...

INTRADAY BREAKOUT RESULT

2009-08-04T18:13:00.000+05:30

2009-08-04T13:20:00.000+05:30

STRONG MOMENTUM

2009-08-04T09:38:00.002+05:30

First weekly target of Nf 4738 almost achieved. Now, the next level to watch is NF 4779-4840 as by that time we will be overbought in hourly charts. For today, the pivot is NF 4685 for target 4758 and resistance around 4779-4786... support now has moved up to S1 4640 - S2 4567. With this move we will retrace 61.8% of the total fall.

AUGUST SERIES MONTHLY TECHINICAL

2009-08-03T09:39:00.001+05:30

With the highest closing for this month , Nifty will now be entering strong resistance zone with supply coming at every high level. Monthly cycle suggests August Month to be bearish.
Pivot for this month is NF 4406 with bullishness as long as we sustain over NF 4705 and bearishness below 4565. First Strong resistance around NF 4793-4899 and Support 4320-4210-4134.
For this week, Pivot and support is NF 4563-4576. Bearish below 4612 and bullish over 4662 f0r target 4709-4738 and strong resistance around 4781-4840. Support for this week is 4494-4474 and free fall below 4420.

CALL

2009-07-30T15:39:00.001+05:30

F&O Call: Buy Nifty with target of 4610 and stop loss of 4490, says Sandeep Wagle, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz
F&O Call: Buy Nifty with target of 4630 and stop loss of 4470, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz
F&O Call: Buy Nifty with target of 4700 and stop loss of 4380, says Anuj Dikshit, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz
F&O Call: Buy Nifty with target of 4650 and stop loss of 4480, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz

WILD SWING

2009-07-30T10:14:00.002+05:30

Indicators showing bearish divergence inspite of nifty going up led to a big jerk down but Reliance led to recovery. Today , being settlement, the volatility is likely to continue. Trading Channel is 4585-4541-4478-4421. Today's pivot is NF 4500 for target 4555 and resistance 4586; support around 4469-4425 .

NIFTY NEW F&O SERIES VIEW

2009-07-30T09:34:00.001+05:30

MARKET IN CONSOLIDATION MODE

2009-07-29T11:38:00.001+05:30

Market hits resistance .... slids down and find support at lower levels. Any side breakout can give a big move.... large caps showing tiredness. The range remains the same as that of last two days with support around NF 4535-4525 and resistance 4586-4605. Nf has to sustain over 4554 for upmove and support at lower levels 4496-4474.